1-00 (March 2000) by Peter Ring Special Aspects

It's difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future!

Robert Storm Petersen(?),
Danish poet and philosopher 1882-1949

 

The Future of some Technologies Related to Technical Writing

It’s January 2005, and most families have at least one PC. A standard household PC costs approx. Euro 100 = US$ 100. The PC-tower and the screen are now one flat unit. Black/white laser printers are museum pieces - all printing is in colour. Windows 2005 has just been introduced, but it is still too bug-ridden to be used for serious purposes.

In 2005 the DVD technologies have completely taking over from the CDs and CD-ROMs, which are a dying technology. This means that there is space for ~ 5 GB data on a cheap CD-like item.

The flat screen display technologies had their final breakthrough around year 2000/02. In 2005, even large flat screens are cheap and they have a higher resolution than in January 2000. The era of the CRT tube is finally over!

The Internet has become as common as the telephone was in 1999. In the next five years (2005- 2010) the telephone will become a part of the Internet based wide band network covering everybody, also including digital cable TV. It is paid for (and this includes international calls) by subscription plus maybe a small charge per giga-byte transferred. (As a price indicator, 1 movie ~ 5 GB).

Another technology that will have exploded is the use of local radio links. In the year 2000 we see this technology in cordless telephones, alarm systems, hobby equipment, cordless mouse/key-board and remote control of equipment (e.g. the lights in a room). Undoubtedly there will be a lot more hard-to-forecast applications in the future.

The e-book (electronic book) exists already; for example, the US$199 NuvoMedia Rocket eBook (see http://www.nuvo-media.com [broken link as of 06 Nov 2001 - AvO]). It is the size of a PC-notebook with XML (SGML/HTML family) programming and 24 lines of text and/or graphics when the screen is portrait formatted. But what could the future 2005 or 2010 models look like? My prediction is based on the weaknesses of the current models: too large, too heavy, and inadequate performance - and what will be technically possible:

In 2005, the e-book will use a DVD (or its prede-cessor) drive containing the book and live illustrations from the movie. It could be a folded device like half a notebook-PC of year 2000. The folded-out size could be 230 x 300 mm (~ total 14"screen), foldable to 230 x 150 x 15 mm (6.7" x 9" x .6"). If desirable for technical documentation, the right display could be used for the text and the left display for illustrations/tables relevant to the current text.

The text/illustrations will be scrollable in variable steps (no fixed pages) and page numbers will be paragraph numbers. The pages may be switched to be readable in landscape. The software needed will be placed on the DVD. There is a small per-manent memory for bookmarks, etc., but no hard disk. It will have buttons to control what is to be shown on the foldable 14" (~A4/letter) 2 x 800 x 1200 pixels display, and will display the content of a page in 9 point Helvetica font very nicely. It will have a cellular phone/IR/local radio link connection to the Internet. It will probably have a touch screen keyboard on one of the displays for Internet communication.

It will include speech software and a flat speaker, so that you can ask it to speak the text, and a start/stop/ rewind remote controller. It may have - at least limited - speech recognition facilities. It will also be able to work as a TV and for e-newspaper reading.

Using the built-in browser, you will be able to access your diary and bank account via a cellular phone link to the Internet.

 

What are the Implications for Technical Communication?

This will have some serious implications for technical writing, although some companies will be more conservative than other companies in implementing the new methodologies. The same will apply to people: ten years ago, most people said: "I'll never work with a PC." Today even my 84 year-old mother has one. Today most people say: "I'll never leave the printed book!" Believe me, they will!

In general, the entire product-handling instructions and all technical details will be on computerised media (you can see this trend happening already, from companies such as Microsoft), and when everybody has a PC/e-book with immediate Internet access, most often there will be no need for a big printed manual. The bulk of information will be available only on electronic media. Ten years from now paper manuals will be used for 1- to 4-page instructions covering

• very simple and cheap products,
• warning sheets for products where important warnings are a legal must, and
• unpacking and other fast and important instructions.

The e-book will also solve the problem of your need to see the Help file while working with software. You will simply display it on your e-book placed next to and linked to your PC. No more help-file page printouts!

Workshop instructions will increasingly be made by computer-controlled speech transmitted by local radio links to the individual worker's earphone in his or her preferred language.

The manuals will increasingly be seen as a part of the product GUI (Graphical User Interface). GUI design, built-in wizards and usability testing of the total product concept (including product handling) will become increasingly important competitive parameters.

 

Implications to the Skills of - and Need for - Technical Communicators (TCs)

Well, in short: In addition to your current skills, the technical communicator will need to learn - how to make 2D/3D animated instructions based on (for example) AutoCAD drawings of the product,

• how to make live software models of a product,
• how to make instructional videos,
• how to work with standard sentences and controlled language where the words can be used for computer-controlled multi-language spoken instructions, and
• an in-depth understanding of the principles for good GUI design and usability testing.

This means that the need for TCs with traditional writing skills will remain fairly stable, but the need for TCs in total will grow. The new technical communicators will come from the world of game design, where they know all about 3D-vector animation, and they will come from the world of TV and video production.

The technical writing people will need to learn

• to think in user needs, because communication skills will become more important than academic linguistic skills,
• GUI-design in order to be (internal/external) consultants to the product designers, and
• what is possible within animated illustrations and when to use speech.

• more need for teamwork (few persons will be able to cover the full range of skills needed),
• more use of freelancers, especially within the animation/video field (small companies won’t be able to afford to have such persons employed either full time or part time), and
• more outsourcing of the complete documentation of products from small and medium sized companies (leaving the documentation to the engineers plus a secretary will be-come an even worse solution than it was in the 90's).

"transline Deutschland - Übersetzungsdienst für technische Übersetzung"